Thursday, March 6, 2008

Season Preview: Chicago White Sox

dhivy: The White Stockings lineup centers around an aging, yet effective core of sluggers. Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko and Jim Thome all played below their expected output, but still accounted for over 100 home runs. With the all-or-nothing Nick Swisher patrolling center field, it appears that GM Ken Williams has eschewed the station to station strategy and decided the chicks dig that long ball. Other new faces include D-Backs castoff Carlos Quentin, who should see far more than the 229 ABs he got last season. Orlando Cabrera is the new shortstop and his playoff experience should bring a much needed jolt to the south side. The most interesting battle I see is at third base. Incumbent and heartthrob Joe Crede only hit .216 last season before succumbing to a lower back injury. 2004 first-round pick Josh Fields had 67 RBI as his replacement and his presence has created trade rumors regarding Crede. Maybe the White Sox should just petition Bud Selig to change the baseball diamond to a pentagon.

In 2005, the pitching was the key component that earned Chicago their World Series rings. What remains in ’08 consists of some of the same parts, along with several unknowns that manager Ozzie Guillen must develop. Mark Huehrle Buehrle is still a worthy staff ace and Javier Vazquez was able to save his bullpen and consistently put his team in position to win games. However, last season was a significant improvement on Vazquez’s numbers compared to the past three, so I’d envision a downturn in his ERA and WHIP. Jose Contreras celebrated his super sweet 37th this offseason after somehow losing seventeen games last year. But the fate of the White Sox lies on the arms of John Danks and Gavin Floyd. Floyd has been somewhat of a disappointment since being the fourth overall pick in 2001. But the Sox organization feels he has turned a corner and left his control problems behind him. A bullpen headlined by Bobby Jenks sounds good, but there are many questions to be answered. Can Octavio Dotel continue to rebound from Thomas Jonathan surgery? How will Scott Linebrink adjust to the American League? Is Matt Thornton going to stop being terrible? Answers to these issues will determine whether or not this year’s Sox are mismatched.

Motivational tactics in Venezuela must be very different than here in America. Guillen promised that should his team win the World Series in 2008, he will run naked through the streets of Chicago. If the White Sox do win it all this year, what does that say about the players in that locker room? If it takes the guarantee of a slightly overweight, extremely naked 44-year-old man to get them to play to their full potential, it may be more than static cling that makes these White Sox stick together.

quang: if there's one thing i know how to do, it's how to be unreasonably optimistic about the white sox every spring. this year is no exception. i loved every single one of general manager kenny williams' moves this off-season, and looking at their improved roster i like their chances. maybe not their chances to win an ultra-competitive al central, but definitely their chances to be the thing i talk about most over the next seven months. with that said, here's my best attempt at a rational preview about the only major league team that i would slap a baby across its face for if they asked me to.

last year was one of the worst seasons i've ever seen the white sox have. they were across the board awful. they had the lowest batting average in the league and similarly the lowest on-base percentage. yes, worse than every national league team. national league teams that allow their pitchers to hit. on the other side of the ball, the white sox did not fare much better. thanks mainly due to a underwhelming bullpen that often allowed runs while the starters were still in the game, the white sox pitching staff finished with a 4.77 era, sixth worst in baseball. and if that weren't enough, in 34 at bats they got a total of zero hits. yet somehow, despite all their shortcomings, the white sox won 72 games, 70 more than they deserved to win. so now, having endured a season where they secured the 8th pick in the upcoming draft, they come into this season with nowhere to go but up. or possibly down.

the white sox enter this season with only ten players who remain from their 2005 championship team. the latest cast offs since last season began included jon garland, a solid middle rotation pitcher, tadahito iguchi, a good second basemen and a prototypical hitter from the second slot, and scott podsednik, the catalyst who set the table for the white sox during their championship run. but with these departures come a number of fresh faces. most noteworthy of which is nick swisher, acquired from the athletics in a trade that gutted the white sox minor league system. aside from frenetic energy and switch-hitting, i think the most important thing swisher brings is the ability to draw walks and reach base. orlando cabrera was brought in from the garland trade and takes the shortstop job away from juan uribe, my favorite white sock. i know cabrera is probably an upgrade, but despite his obvious flaws, like a plus .700 out-making percentage, i'm a uribe man through and through. besides, after his defensive heroics in 2005, juan uribe has earned the right to take a few seasons off.

anyways, aside from those big splashes, the white sox also added carlos quentin and alexi ramirez, two young position players who i think have a lot of promise. quentin was only a season ago a very highly touted prospect for the diamondbacks, but after shoulder surgery and eric brynes' emergence the white sox bought low. alexi ramirez is a utility man who has the inside track on the vacant slot at second base. as a cuban defector, i expect he'll be incredible and also be 15 years older than he says. the white sox only major other additions were to their maligned bullpen by signing scott linebrink and octavio dotel. linebrink was the padres long-time lights out set up man before being traded to milwuakee midseason last year. octavio dotel is a decent bullpen arm but has battled injuries over the last several seasons, making him a great unknown. but if either of these guys can consistently get through a single inning without tossing a wild pitch that hits the third base coach, i think the white sox will be in good shape.

thankfully, there is some continuity between this year and last. paul konerko, jermaine dye, jim thome, aj pierzynski, and joe crede all return to the lineup hoping that their sub-par 2007 seasons don't follow. i expect most of them to rebound simply because, based on the difference between their predicted ops and actual ops, many of the white sox hitters were horribly unlucky. konerko, pierzynski, and thome were each the second unluckiest players for their respective positions while jermaine dye was the fourth unluckiest outfielder. other teams better hope these white sox players spent their off-season passing black cats, walking under ladders, and stepping on cracks that break their mother's back because that's the only way i see them not returning to form. joe crede on the other hand missed almost the entire season due to injury. but in his absence, josh fields established himself as a legit player. sadly, one of these two is expected to be dealt sometime this season. deciding which one i'd rather have traded is like picking between two of my kids. kids who for whatever reason i want to trade to someone else so i can give the other more playing time. what a horrible father i've become. anyways, with these players, and jerry owens and pablo ozuna in the mix, the white sox lineup seems pretty deep and very versatile. hopefully this makes up for the fact that their talent at the top isn't as high as many other contenders. if not, hopefully bud selig extends the batting order from nine players to 15.

thus far, my outlook on the white sox has been extremely rosy, so i guess it's only fair that i discuss my biggest area of concern: the starters. mark buehrle and javier vazquez had very strong 2007 campaigns and i expect their success to continue. but behind them, things get dicey with jose contreras and the duo of gavin floyd and john danks. contreras has been dreadful for the last year and half and i'm not optimistic he'll be able to return to his previous form. floyd finished last season very strong and has the talent to flourish, but who knows how his first crack at an extended stay in a rotation will go? lastly, danks, the prize in the brandon mccarthy deal last year, played as expected in his first full season; some ups and a lot of downs. at this point, only a rotation of five matthew leskos would have more question marks as the white sox rotation currently does. of course, if that were the case, with all the money they saved from free stuff the government gives out, maybe they'd be able to afford more proven pitchers. anyways, to summarize this long-winded preview, as it stands right now, the white sox seem firmly entrenched in third place. i don't think a division title is completely out of reach but they'll definitely need a few breaks to get there. specifically breaks to the bones of miguel cabrera and grady sizemore. but regardless of what happens, this is as excited i've been about a white sox team for quite some time. the only thing they're missing right now is frank thomas patrolling centerfield.

Unsung Hero:

  • Gavin Floyd (d)
  • Alexi Ramirez (q)
  • Orlando Cabrera (j)
Achilles Heel:
  • Javier Vasquez (d)
  • Jose Contreras (q)
  • Octavio Dotel (j)

Favorite Moment:

  • Mark Buehrle picking off the only base runner in his no-hitter against Texas. (d)
  • The White Sox first allow six runs in the top of the 9th in a game against the rival Twins before rallying for six runs of their own in the bottom of the ninth and later winning in the extras. Then 10 days later against the Angels, Jim Thome in the bottom of the ninth hits his 500th home run for a walk off White Sox victory. (q)
  • Ozzie Guillen makes an offhand remark about how fat Miguel Cabrera is. (j)

Bold Prediction:

  • With the news that Fidel Castro has ceded power, Jose Contreras travels by raft back to Cuba. (d)
  • The White Sox win the AL Central and also every other division in the league thanks to Nick Swisher's MVP season where he hits 75 home runs from each side of the plate. (q)
  • Juan Uribe will hit a walk-off grand slam during the White Sox first day game. Quang spends the remainder of the afternoon explaining to his employer why he was running around the office shirtless. (j)

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