Season Preview: Cincinnati Reds

Joe: For some reason last year I watched more than my fair share of Cincinnati Reds games. I am by no means a fan of the Reds, they dont play a particularly good brand of baseball, but they have perhaps the most exciting young player in baseball taking the field every day at second base,2007 30 - 30 club member Brandon Phillips. Castaway by two teams, the Expos and the Indians for attitude issues, Phillips combines the coolest attributes of some of the best players in the past decade into one package. He has a Garry Sheffield-esque bat flick for timing, which makes every at bat look like something amazing is about to happen, and gives opposing pitchers reason to change their shorts after every inning Phillips has a turn at-bat. He has Jimmy Rollins type speed which allows him to swipe bags at a high rate and make unbelievable stabs at would-be bloop hits. And finally he makes Roberto Alomar-esque plays at second, combining the perfect mix of "i cant believe my eyes" athleticism with hot-dog flare. Although he is still not mature enough to be the leader of this team in the traditional sense e.g. team captain, he is definitely primed to lead the Reds in tons of offensive and defensive statistics and Sportscenter highlights and really, when your team is horrible - thats really all that matters.

I expect more of the same from the Reds this season. They have not improved much besides the fact that they have a pretty reliable everyday closer in the form of Francisco Cordero and they will have the services of highly touted hurler, Homer Bailey for the whole season. You can expect more of the same from Aaron Harang, quality starts, a high K rate and because of his location in Cincinnati, he will fly under the radar of most casual baseball fans. Bronson Arroyo proved that he is what the league thought he was after he had a torrid 2006 campaign he fell back to earth and is little more than an average starter. On the offense side of things, the Reds return the same bunch. Aside from Phillips, Adam Dunn will provide a truckload of homeruns and at one point in the year showed that he has some wheels and will steal a base if you let him. Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, and Corey Patterson will battle it out for Center field honors, and all three speedsters have their fair share of problems actually getting on base, but Freel makes up for it with his ability to play almost any position on the field. Nevertheless without any major upgrades, new manager Dusty Baker will be hard pressed to improve much over the 72 wins that the Reds were able to scratch out last year. It's a shame as perhaps the teams most recognizable player Ken Griffey Jr. enters the twilight of his career.

Ken Griffey Jr. had all the makings of a legendary player, the type of athlete that Micheal Jordan turned out to be. I remember in 7th grade, me and my friends would crowd around the lunch table with the new Eastbay catalog first to approve or disapprove of the new Jordans, and then quickly after admire the new Griffey sneakers. It's amazing that a baseball player would have enough clout to share the mid-nineties sneaker conversation with Micheal Jordan, but that was the type of player Griffey was on trajectory to be. Mastery of the game, and an engaging personality. Then came the injuries, and he has become more or a sympathetic figure, as people like I think wistfully upon what could have been. Griffey, even in his mature ages can still put on a show, and even experienced a bit of an injury-free renaissance last year mashing 30 round-trippers and playing in a stunning 144 games. This may be due to a less demanding role in right-field or it could be that he is no longer talented enough physically to attempt the high risk activities that would seem to cause his most severe injuries - but either way I will make sure I enjoy Ken's last couple games for what they were and not harp on what they could have been.

Dhivy: At the height of McCarthyism in the 1950s, the Reds changed their team nickname to the Redlegs to disassociate themselves from Communism. So it comes as no surprise that Mike Stanton, relief pitcher for the Reds, was named in the Mitchell Report. The document details drug use in baseball and has been compared to Joe McCarthy’s “personal witch hunt”. Something tells me shortstop Juan Castro is in for a rough season.

This bit of history might strike you as a clever historic parallel, but really I’m just killing time before I have to start talking about this team. Cincinnatians are killing time waiting for the emergence of two high-ceiling prospects: Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce. Bailey saw time in the big show last season and showed flashes of brilliance. With a full-time spot in the rotation, Dusty Baker is hoping that Homer’s pitches won’t require an odyssey before reaching home. Bruce will start the season in the minors, but he was last year’s minor league player of the year and has drawn comparisons to Larry Walker. Should the Reds falter in the first half or need some extra punch in their outfield, don’t be surprised to see Bruce in the lineup. And should they both flame out, Bailey & Bruce sounds like a great name for a travelling circus.

Pitching is always going to be a problem in Cincy because the stadium they play in is skewed in the batter’s favor. I don’t know the exact dimensions but I’d estimate that dead center is roughly 12 feet from home plate. So a pitcher who can keep the ball in the park is a hot commodity. Pitchers like Bailey, Cy Young candidate Aaron Harang, and new closer Francisco Cordero have had success in this regard. But Bronson Arroyo, slated to be the #2 starter, carried a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 0.83 in 2007. He’s given up 59 home runs in two years at the Great American Ballpark and if the trend continues, he may be better served sticking to the guitar. Josh Fogg moves from Coors Field to Cincinnati, so he still will be struggling against his home park. It’s like waking up from a nightmare only to discover you’re still in a different nightmare.

The red herring I’m most interested in following this season is catcher David Ross. He set a career high for games played with 112, but his numbers didn’t reflect the increase in playing time. Despite a marginally better k-rate, his batting average plummeted from .255 to .203 and had 13 fewer RBI in 64 more ABs. Either he was victimized by some sort of voodoo warlord, or he had terrible luck with the balls he hit into play. I expect a much better season from Ross and I’ll even go out on a limb and predict 25-30 home runs. Junior Griffey and Adam Dunn will continue to mash this year, but the outlook is bleak without a more consistent pitching staff. But at least the Reds aren’t a bunch of criminals, unlike some Cincinnati teams.

Unsung Hero

• Norris Hopper (j)
• David Ross (d)
• Homer Bailey (q)

Achilles' Heel

• Bronson Arroyo (j)
• Bronson Arroyo (d)
• David Ross (q)

Favorite Memory

• Brandon Phillips swipes second and third base on one pitch in a game against the Nationals. (j)
• Homer Bailey’s call up is met with fanfare because he is a great prospect and because no one has been named Homer since Homer Simpson. (d)
• I drop Brandon Phillips in fantasy baseball and Joe picks him up, Joe wins the league and I am to directly to blame. That's the last time Joe ever wins a fantasy league that I'm a part of. (q)

Bold Prediction

• Dusty Baker becomes the first manager to go on the DL when he opts for splinter removal surgery following a toothpick mishap in the clubhouse. (j)
• The Reds embrace their Communist brethren and denounce baseball’s open market spending. (d)
• Trying to reverse the curse Dhivy put on him when Dhivy bought a Mariners Griffey jersey, Ken Griffey Jr. buys a Dhivy jersey. Dhivy tears his ACL at work while typing on his computer. (q)