Flipping Sweet

Order for the NFL draft is determined by win-loss record and ties are broken by strength of schedule. With a three-way tie at 4-12 and .516 opponents' winning percentage, the Falcons, Raiders, and Chiefs were forced flip a coin to decide who would pick where. The methodology was as follows:

• The Falcons and Raiders would match up in a coin toss with the Falcons calling it. If the Falcons won, they would pick 3rd, the raiders would pick 4th, and the Chiefs would be 5th.
• If the Raiders won the preliminary coin toss, they would pick 3rd, and the Falcons and Chiefs would flip a coin.
• The winner of the Falcons-Chiefs flip would pick 4th, the loser would pick 5th.

So using these rules, the Falcons had a 50% chance at the third pick, a 25% chance at the fourth pick, and a 25% chance at the fifth pick. This yields an average draft position (ADP) of 3.75. Calculations for the Raiders and Chiefs are as follows:

Raiders ADP - 50% * 3 + 50% * 4 = 3.50
Chiefs ADP - 50% * 4 + 50% * 5 = 4.50

The Falcons ended up winning the coin toss, so the order will be Falcons, Raiders, Chiefs. But why is something as important as draft order being decided with such unfair odds against the Chiefs? Why couldn't they pick high card out of a deck? Or roll a pair of dice? The right pick this early in the draft could transform a franchise for years and years, and Kansas City got hosed out of the opportunity to draft higher. I can hear Herm Edwards now.